MCC, a leading international business district that drives the flow of global trade through Dubai, has launched its Future of Trade 2026 report that finds that global trade will remain resilient over the next two years but fundamentally reshaped by Artificial Intelligence, structural tariff volatility, supply chains designed for resilience and a contest for industrial advantage in critical minerals and infrastructure powering global clean energy and technologies.

The report, Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture, comes as businesses confront a sharp deterioration in the predictability of the global trade landscape. Nearly 20 % of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar restrictions, up from 12.6 % a year earlier, while more than four in five business leaders surveyed by DMCC expect slow growth, continued supply chain disruption and prolonged geopolitical volatility in the coming years. Almost 12 % expect a worst-case scenario driven by escalating conflict, tariffs, sanctions and financial fragmentation. Only 4 % expect a bestcase outcome.

At the same time, AI is rapidly emerging as the dominant driver of trade growth. Trade in AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers and data centre hardware, expanded by more than 20 % in the first half of 2025, compared with less than 4 % growth for non-AI goods. Although AI-related goods account for only 15 % of global trade by volume, they generated 43 % of total trade growth during the period, according to the report.

The report forecasts merchandise exports to slow to 1.9 % in 2026, down from 4.6 % in 2025, before marginally recovering to 2.6 % in 2027. Services exports are forecast to continue outpacing goods.

Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, DMCC, said:“ AI-related goods accounted for 43 % of global trade growth in the first half of 2025, despite representing just 15 % of global trade by volume. This underscores where global trade is heading. We are entering a new phase in which competitiveness will be defined not only by cost or geography, but by technology, connectivity, energy access and the ability to adapt quickly to disruption. In a more complex and fragmented environment, the role of globally connected hubs becomes even more important.

“ Dubai has positioned itself at the centre of these shifts by remaining open, agile and deeply connected to global markets. With almost 27,000 companies in our district, DMCC sees these changes unfolding in real-time across commodities, technology, finance and trade. The businesses and economies that will lead over the next decade are those building resilience, investing in technology and creating stronger connections across global markets.” �

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